The Guernsey Press article entitled “Non-symptomatic contacts can stay in school” dated 26th August, 2021 stated that “students and teachers who come into contact with a positive Covid case in a school setting – but do not show symptoms – will be allowed to attend school”.
By “Non-symptomatic” is also presumably meant “Asymptomatic” and by Covid is meant ‘Coronavirus disease’, which can be caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, noting that the virus is distinct from the disease and can cause it, but not always and not if the positive test result is a false positive or has tested positive for another virus, which, according to the leaflet included with lateral flow test (‘LFT’) packs, in the section marked ‘Cross Reactivity’ could be another common cold causing virus such as an ‘Adenovirus’ or even a bacterial infection.
I would like to question the term ‘Asymptomatic Transmission’ as used by the media for the last 18 months. This term actually means ‘transmission without symptoms’, which in and of itself does not seem to make sense from a common sense point of view.
Asymptomatic Transmission: is it really possible to transmit a virus from one to person to another without symptoms ? Certainly folklore and history do not concur. The old adage ‘coughs and sneezes spread diseases’ still seems to make sense. But what does the medical and scientific community think ?
Before the year 2020, the aforementioned community never studied the concept of the transfer of a disease from one person to another without symptoms. Why not ? Because it was accepted that a person without symptoms of a respiratory infection was not ill from such an infection. Has the medical and scientific community done any investigation into how the virus SARS-CoV-2 is spread ? Yes they have. Upon investigation, it turns out that there are numerous articles on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the main scientific journals such as The Lancet, Nature, and NEJM (New England Journal of Medicine) as well as in JAMA (Journal of the American Medical Association), Respiratory Medicine, the BMJ (British Medical Journal), Eurosurveillance and MedRxiv.
▪ In ‘JAMA’, 14/12/2020, an article ‘Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 – A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis’ [1] asked : “What is the household secondary attack rate for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) ?” Answer : “A total of 54 relevant studies with 77,758 participants reporting household secondary transmission were identified. Estimated household secondary attack rates from asymptomatic cases was 0.7% meaning that there was negligible transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from people that did not have symptoms”.
▪ In ‘Eurosurveillance’, 12/05/2020, an article ‘No evidence of secondary transmission of COVID-19 from children attending school in Ireland, 2020’ [2] stated “lack of evidence of transmission in the school setting remains. We examined Irish notifications of SARS-CoV-2 in the school setting and identified no paediatric transmission. This adds to current evidence that children do not appear to be drivers of transmission”. Another article in the same journal, entitled ‘Minimal transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from paediatric COVID-19 cases in primary schools, Norway, August to November 2020’ [3] stated “we found minimal child-to-child (0.9 %, 2/234) and child-to-adult (1.7 %, 1/58) transmission, supporting that under 14 year olds are not the drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
▪ In ‘MedRxiv’, 29/01/2021, an article ‘SARS-CoV-2 infection and transmission in school settings during the second wave in Berlin, Germany’ [4] concluded “SARS-CoV-2 infection activity in Berlin schools during peak transmission appeared to be low. Secondary transmission in class was absent, and in connected households, the attack rate was around 1 %. Based on our findings, we are cautiously optimistic that schooling itself does not necessarily lead to child-to-child transmission or constitute a central pandemic driver.”
▪ In ‘Nature Communications’, 20/11/2020, an article ‘Post-lockdown SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening in 10 million residents of Wuhan, China’ [5] appeared. It reported : “From May 14th, 2020 to 1st June, 2020, in the city of Wuhan, China, 9,899,828 (9.8 million) people were tested for the presence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. 300 asymptomatic positive cases were found. A total of 1174 close contacts of the asymptomatic positive cases were traced, and they all tested negative. Virus cultures were negative for all asymptomatic positive cases, indicating no “viable virus” in positive cases detected in this study. The asymptomatic positive rate in urban districts was on average 0.456/10,000. A lower rate of asymptomatic positive cases was found in suburban districts at 0.132/10,000). There was no evidence of transmission from asymptomatic positive persons to traced close contacts.”
▪ In ‘Respiratory Medicine’, 13/05/2020, an article ‘A study on infectivity of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers’ [6] reported : “455 contacts who were exposed to the asymptomatic COVID-19 virus carrier became the subjects of our research. All CT images showed no sign of COVID-19 infection. No severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections were detected in 455 contacts by nucleic acid test. Conclusion : In summary, all the 455 contacts were excluded from SARS-CoV-2 infection and we conclude that the infectivity of some asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers might be weak.”
▪ Finally, in the ‘BMJ’, 16/11/2020, an article ‘Mass testing for Covid-19 in the UK’ [7] stated “Evidence of Asymptomatic spread is insufficient to justify mass testing for Covid-19”.
Closing summary
Based on the above scientific articles, the secondary attack rates are all less than 2 %, meaning that incidence of ‘Asymptomatic Transmission’ is very low, perhaps even almost zero given evidence from Wuhan of all places, meaning that the risk of transmission from an asymptomatic carrier of SARS-CoV-2, whether adult, adolescent or child, is virtually zero. It is therefore clear that the scientific evidence does not justify the quarantining and testing of asymptomatic individuals who have tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, meaning that the entire testing program for adults, adolescents and children should be stopped immediately.
Another reason to not have any border controls at all is the non-existence of transmission by ‘fomites’ (surface transmission). In the Times newspaper of 28th August, 2021, an article entitled ‘We need to throw away the anti-Covid wipes’ (by Matthew Paris) referred to an article in the scientific journal ‘The Lancet’ dated 29/09/2020, entitled ‘Low risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission by fomites in real-life conditions’ [8]. The article stated “Our findings suggest that environmental contamination leading to SARS-CoV-2 transmission is unlikely to occur in real-life conditions”.
Final conclusion
It is fair to conclude that there is no substantive evidence to promote the need for future testing of asymptomatic people vaccinated or unvaccinated. There should be an immediate cessation of all testing at borders and the two week isolation requirements for unvaccinated individuals. The above evidence shows that the current CCA policy of introducing lateral flow tests in schools unscientifically founded and flawed from conception, and the 18 month long PCR testing program unnecessary from a scientific perspective.
References
1. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.31756
2. https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.21.200903
3. https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.26.1.2002011
4. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250517
5. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19802-w
6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rmed.2020.106026
7. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m4436
8. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30678-2
